In a relief camp, a little girl bites a tender guava - another small boy cleans up a bowl of flat-rice – food aid is reaching the people of flooded Bihar.

But what happens next? The coming months pose a worse threat than ever before to the health of these children, as food availability decreases and food prices increase in the wake of this year’s floods.

The impact of flood on prices of essential commodities is more than a speculation. On September 4th, the Cabinet Committee on Prices, chaired by the Indian Prime Minister himself,  Manmohan Singh, was briefed about the stock and prices of food-grains, edible oils and other commodities. The committee was also briefed about the impact of floods on cultivation and the prices, particularly foodgrains.

In the past, the state government of Bihar has intervened many times to cut down the increase of prices to make food affordable to the masses. This time around, it may be challenging for the state to monitor and curb food prices.

At Madhepura district, people say that most of Bihar’s population has not been affected by the food crisis because the government has been pro-poor and has managed to control pricing. But that was in normal times. Now the local government is being kept busy with relief assessments and operations.

Since the flood hit the 16 districts of Bihar, stories of many opportunists charging more than what they ought to, be it a boat ride or sale of commodities, is common to hear. So, while government mechanisms can effectively control prices in the towns, it may be challenging to do the same in far-flung villages where people suffer the most.

Sugarcane, paddy and maize is widely grown in severely flood-affected north Bihar. In the coming six months, there will be little or no crops left and land owners and farmers will not be able to offer jobs to the women who cut the crops and are given their share of food in return.

In this context -  where villagers buy little food because of regular supply from the fields – the reality of food price rise has not impacted them as much in the past as it will now.

There will be no food supply from the land, the village economy is already collapsing leaving thousands jobless and parents will have no money to buy food, leave aside education and health for their children.

For now, the impact of food-price rise in India and the world over, is creeping into flooded Bihar – but it is almost hidden, gradual but could possibly turn the flooding disaster into a bigger catastrophe in the months to come.

“Today people will be forced to buy food and the question of buying food may emerge as a major problem,” said Bradley Thompson, National Coordinator of Health for World Vision India, as he toured the flooded districts with an assessment team.

The grim  reality for Fekan’s family

Five-year old Fekan’s future is bleak, his family is displaced, his family’s cattle gone, his house washed away, his loved ones are now living in a makeshift camp and surviving on the food aid given by the government and aid agencies.

As long as Fekan’s family stay in the relief camp, their basic needs will be met - but they will sooner than later be pushed out of the camp.

Unlike other families who travelled for hours to get to the camp, this family took less than an hour walking in the hot sun to reach Parwaha Canal relief camp, Madhepura district.

Fekan’s father Shiv is a landless farmer who pays high prices for the small plot he uses to cultivate, and even after the floods destroyed all his crops, this struggling farmer will still need to pay the amount agreed. Alongside, working on the rented land - Shiv and his wife also work as daily laborers for middle-class farmers.

Though their wages are very low, what fills the family’s stomachs is the share of food Shiv and his wife bring home after working in the fields. When this family goes back home, there will be no fields, no rice, no food – a problem that will linger for months.

Now that Shiv will be forced to buy food regularly in the coming months, the price rise of commodities is of major concern to him.

“I don’t know how to get food as nothing available in the market is affordable”, said Shiv. “I will need to work for longer hours to provide my family with what we need.”

But he is clearly not sure if his plan will work.

As people leave their camps and go back to their villages, they will need other things more than food like clothes, medical assistance and education. For Shiv, the urgent and priority is still food because the other basic needs can wait, “My children may not be able to go school, we have to live with that”, he added.

World Vision’s relief in the form of survival kit (including rice, lentils, powdered pulses, flat rice, candles and match boxes) is helping families like this one to get by. And while they are in the camp, World Vision and locals who run the camp are preparing them to face the aftermath of this flood. I

n two months time, World Vision targets to cover a population of 125,000 helping them in the area of food, health and child care.

Global economy contributes to price rises

Because corporate India is moving at a startling pace and the country’s economy touching the 8 percent growth, people’s capacity to buy food and cereals is increasing - resulting in a natural increase of pricing and consumption which impacts the poor.

To address this, food exporting nations like India are pressed to counter inflation and to reserve more rations for their huge populace. Food specialists fear that this will affect food supply and costs not only in India but also other nations who import from India.

In the Bihar context, where the problem of malnutrition has been lingering for decades – economic poverty, famine and now flooding will surely have direct and indirect impacts on the poor.

“The malnutrition in these districts is among the highest levels in the country, and the potential for a greater disaster is there,” said Bradley Thompson.

With inflation figures swinging up and down, and hitting almost 12% in mid-July this year – the sufferers are not the 350 million middle class Indians who live in cities and towns but millions more of impoverished community in the country side, including daily laborers who are now in the flood relief camps of Bihar.

Inflation therefore, has remained an area of serious concern for the government which has been taking a number of steps to check the price rise.

While consumption increases, the demand goes up, the supply remains the same resulting in price rise.

All of this may be economically acceptable – but try to explain this to Shiv, facing an overwhelming challenge in finding work when there are no crops to harvest. He’ll never buy it.