• The World Bank estimates that for every dollar invested in pre-disaster risk reduction activities in developing countries seven dollars in losses can be averted (2).
• When Cyclone Nargis changed direction, it proved impossible to reach communities at risk in time to warn them. The resulting death toll continues to climb and could be as high as 200,000.
• The world's first recorded climate-change-related evacuation of low-lying islands is now underway in Papua New Guinea's Carteret Islands.
• The Leyte landslide which covered an entire village and claimed over 1,000 lives in the Philippines in 2006 occurred after five days of torrential rains.
• The Sundarbans – the world's largest mangrove forest – protects thousands of people when cyclonic surges strike the coast of Bangladesh. About 40 percent of this UNESCO world heritage site is now destroyed.

A new series of research factsheets commissioned by World Vision warns of the vulnerability of developing communities in the face of climate change.

Over recent decades, the number and severity of natural disasters has risen steadily. While scientists worldwide ponder the causes of rising sea levels and increased disaster activity, World Vision’s factsheets aim to help Asia and the Pacific to prepare for the effects.

UNDP estimates that 98% of people at risk from natural disaster live in developing countries, least able to find resilience among their own resources to withstand the effects of a sudden storm, flood, cyclone or earthquake.(1)

This makes disaster preparation an essential element of any community development strategy.

“The rationale is simple,” states the foreward to the first series of factsheets, prepared by independent consultant Johannes Luetz. “Disasters can wipe out years of development in mere minutes. Reducing disaster risks is not an optional extra – but an extra obligation.”

The initial focus is on coastal communities. Ten percent of people worldwide live less than ten metres above sea level and near the coast, a high-risk zone for floods and storms; about 75 percent of those people live in Asia and the Pacific.

The factsheets examine four countries in this context: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines and Papua New Guinea. Each country faces a different set of uncertainties, from storms and tsunami through to the disappearance of lowlying land or inability to “disaster-proof” communities that face increasing severity from yearly weather cycles.

While the devastation of major catastrophes is impossible to avoid, the factsheets also show how effective an approach of preparedness and awareness can be for communities at risk.

Community-led strategies such as early warnings, evacuation plans or building solid refuge shelters, can save lives in the event of a disaster. Reforestation, risk identification, and poverty reduction including better housing or moving from areas prone to regular flooding, reduce impact.

The factsheets also act as a reminder that children are especially at risk in the case of coastal disaster. Child-friendly preparedness training, through games, evacuation simulations, and regular lessons and refreshers through clubs or schools, increase their ability to protect themselves and prioritise disaster mitigation when they become adults.

The next resource in this series, Planet Prepare, will examine development strategies and how they must change to meet the growing need for disaster mitigation. It is scheduled for release in mid August.

(1, 2) UNDP. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world. Published 2007. New York. USA

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